I keep thinking of what the filmmaker Stanley Kubrick once said: finding a good story is as difficult as falling in-love. The first installment of theI keep thinking of what the filmmaker Stanley Kubrick once said: finding a good story is as difficult as falling in-love. The first installment of the Dune series is indeed a great story and it is one of my favorite works of fiction of all time. The sequal is much more foucsed on power politics; it follows the now emperor Paul Atreides, the Muadib, and the conspiracy to remove him from power. ...more
"It was the rise of Athens and the fear this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable." - Thucidides, History of the Peloponnesian war
This is in e"It was the rise of Athens and the fear this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable." - Thucidides, History of the Peloponnesian war
This is in essence Thucydide's trap which great powers face when confronted with a rising power. Harvard professor Graham Allison doesn't think war is predetermined but sees it as a very possible outcome in the case of US versus China. One must take the historical cases into account and therefore ponder the risks involved. Allison essentially categorizes the conflict between US and China as one between different civilizations (quoting Samuel Huntingtons famous paper).
How many times have such a confrontation between powers led to war in the last 500 years? 12 out of 16 times. One case is the one between Britain and Germany in the early 1900's. I hadn't heard of the Crowe memorandum which was writted by an official in the foreign office whose german expertise allowed him to see risks involved with an expansionist Germany. Germany was at this point building a navy and effectively challenging Britains dominance. He therefore surmised that Germany's intentions did not matter; what mattered was their capabilities. "A vague policy of growth could at any time shift into a grand design for political and naval dominance"
Allison has a whole chapter devoted to TRs presidency and the ramifications this had on the world stage. I had previously read Kissingers somewhat positive account of his foreign policy (tending to realpolitik rather than some form of neoconservatism). Allison made me rethink Roosevelts this however and see how warlike TR war. He was the kind of person who would often threat other countries with war if they did not comply to his term and even went to war with Spain in order to gain new territorities (and actually participated in the war). TR often conflates his foreign policies goals (i.e. an expansion of American power and influence) with a moral which sounds a lot like neoconservative foreign policy. The key difference is perhaps that TRs language is often tilted toward power politics which show his true intentions. Make America Great.
Chinese foreign policy on the other hand is not missionary but expands by way of cultural osmosis. Chinese civilization is - according to Allison - as exclusive as the West is inclusive. It is ethno-centric. I enjoyed reading about Xis background and how tragic his early life was (his father was close to Mao until he was labeled a traitor). Allison goes into great detail to explain how Chinese take a longer view on things and how they see every policy as part of a holistic vision of what they want China to be (or rather: what Xi wants for China). I hadn't thought about foreign politics in terms of geoeconomics which indeed managed to change my perspective on things.
I just don't see how anyone can steer the market seeing as how it is essentially something decentralized. Obviously a great deal of the rise in GDP growth of China comes from urbanisation but how can they maintain a high level of innovation given their totalitarian system? I don't see how this is possible. But perhaps they don't need to innovate as much - they simply steal the latest tech from the US.
I recommend this for anyone interested in politics!...more
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