By Vera Songwe
The European Parliament met yesterday [3rd June] to
discuss the implications of the European Union elections and begin selecting
new leaders for the parliament. African countries, like the rest of the world,
will be closely watching the repercussions of the latest EU “earthquake” (in
the words of French President Francois Hollande) on their economies and
citizens. These election results are once again the consequence of the
2008 financial crisis, only now—six years later—the crisis’ impact has moved
beyond the initial effects on the financial sector and global trade to the
socio-economic and political fabric of societies across the globe.
On May 25, 2014, Europe experienced an unprecedented
political pivot to the far right, as European Union countries elected their
leaders for the next five years. Seven countries of the EU (what I will call
the EU7) voted to send far-right parties to Brussels. In France, these parties
received 25 percent of the national vote; Denmark, 23 percent; the U.K., 20
percent; Austria, 20 percent; Hungary, 15 percent; Finland, 13 percent; and
Greece, 12 percent.[1]Thus,
the far right collectively will hold over 30 percent of the seats in the new EU
parliament.
Lack of growth in Europe has dimmed the enthusiasm of
integration and openness that formed the hallmark of the EU. The economics of
the EU have changed: It started with 15 countries at the end of 2003 and growth
rates of 3.9 percent on average, to 28 countries and an average growth rate of
-0.4 percent in 2012. Of the seven countries that voted to shift to the far
right, growth has plummeted from 4.2 percent in 2000 to -1.2 percent in 2012.
Unemployment rose from 7.3 percent in 2000 to 10.3 percent in 2012 in these
countries over the same period. Worse still, many of these countries have gone
through five years of no growth. As a consequence, a sense of economic despair
is growing among the middle and lower classes. This difficult economic
situation will be the backdrop of the meetings on Tuesday.
As they convene, the new members of the European parliament
will not only begin to address the challenges of governing Europe and growing
its economy; they will also examine their relationship with Africa. A number of
issues pertaining to the EU’s relationship with Africa—including trade,
openness and the Economic Partnership Agreement, immigration, development
assistance and peacekeeping—will be under scrutiny. African leaders and their
populations are watching to see how these important issues are addressed.
Trade and the
Anti-Globalization Movement
Unlike the EU7, Africa is experiencing unprecedented growth:
It is expected to grow at 5.5 percent in 2014. Trade with the rest of the world
is fuelling this growth, and trade with the EU is an important component.
Exports from Africa to the whole of the EU have increased from $95 billion in
2000 to $209 billion in 2013. Even if the overall share has been decreasing,
this trade remains significant. The largest exporters to Africa from the
EU in 2013 were France (18 percent of all EU exports), Germany (14 percent),
Italy (13 percent) and Spain (11 percent). Spain (17 percent of all EU
imports), Italy (16 percent), France (16 percent), the United Kingdom (13
percent) and Germany (12 percent) were the largest importers. Manufactured
goods accounted for 70 percent of all EU exports to Africa in 2013, while energy
made up 64 percent of imports. The major trading partners with the EU are South
Africa, Nigeria, Algeria and Libya.
To deepen trade relations, Africa and Europe have been
negotiating regional economic partnership agreements expected to increase access
of African countries to European markets—the most advanced of these discussions
being the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the members of the Economic
Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the largest regional trading block
in sub-Saharan Africa. Negotiations on these agreements are set to conclude
this year.
The negotiation of EPAs thus focuses on narrow market access
considerations. African countries keep their preferential access to the EU
market, with some minor improvements in the rules of origin, in return for
opening up their markets to the EU over a defined transitional period. The
EPAs, like many trade agreements under discussion, have become increasingly
controversial for African countries, especially in the larger countries with industrial
policies that seek to develop domestic industry by protecting local firms using
trade barriers as a tool. To date no African countries have signed a full EPA,
and only 14 of 45 countries have agreed to an interim one.
The questions for policymakers and those involved in the
discussions are: What impact will the new parliament have on the direction of
the negotiations and will the parameters of the negotiations change to reflect
the new political leanings in Brussels? How will African countries react to
this new landscape?
Nationalism and
Immigration
Nationalism is on the rise in all of the EU7 countries. For
example, 17 percent of the French electorate reported that immigration is the
most important issue facing France and Europe, ahead of their concerns for
jobs, growth and macro-economic stability. The tension here is that, despite
the rapid growth witnessed in Africa, migration from Africa to Europe continues
to increase. In 2010, the stock of African migrants in France, the U.K. and
Denmark—the top three right-wing countries of the new EU parliament—was 2.8
million, 1.2 million and 38,000, respectively. A significant share of migrants
to France is from Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia, countries where economic growth
has stalled due to, among other things, prolonged political crisis.
However, the migrants to the U.K. from Africa originate from Nigeria,
Ghana and South Africa, where growth—driven mainly by the natural resource
sectors—has on average been high but not inclusive.
The new EU parliament may embrace the idea of the French far
right Front National party to reduce the number of migrants admitted into
Europe by over 80 percent. The policy of deportation may also be
accelerated. This would have important implications for Africa. In an environment
of high unemployment in Africa, a repatriation policy for even 1 percent of the
nearly 3 million migrants in France today will only fuel social unrest on both
sides with unwanted social and political consequences. Will the EU7 be ready
for this?
In addition, many African countries are taking on the issue
of immigration as a human rights issue and demanding better treatment of their
citizens in Europe. More countries are increasingly demanding that European
countries sign conventions on the treatment of migrants. If providing better
living conditions for African migrants is seen as costly by European countries,
it could provide a justification for tighter policies towards migrants and
encourage repatriations. How will African countries react to this new
environment?
South-South
Collaboration
In the meantime, might the EU vote for an African pivot
towards emerging market countries like China, India, Turkey and Brazil? During
the crisis, Africa benefitted from increased trade with emerging market countries
like China and India to maintain its high growth levels. Greater trade openness
with emerging market economies helped African countries diversify their trade
relations. While slow growth in Europe has led to a drop in exports from Africa
to the EU, exports to China have increased. In addition, bilateral relations
with China have gone from strength to strength, and, despite some setbacks,
African countries are keen to take advantage of the increased resources from
China. Could the recent EU also serve to deepen South-South collaboration? What
further impact will the EU vote have on increased South-South trade?
Development
Assistance and Peacekeeping
Development assistance from Europe remains high even as
official aid allocations from the EU to Africa have fallen since 2011. Despite
them economic crisis, many countries tried to protect development assistance,
but now these efforts may be under threat. In 2012, only the U.K., Denmark,
Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden met the United Nation’s pledge
to provide more than 0.7 percent of their GNI in development assistance. Today,
the U.K. is the second-largest donor to Africa after the United States, France
is the fourth largest, and Denmark is the eleventh. While FDI has grown
significantly, development assistance remains an important source of resources
for many countries, especially the fragile and conflict-affected countries with
no access to other sources of funds.
In addition to development assistance, Africa relies heavily
on the EU for peacekeeping. Currently there are over four EU peacekeeping
missions on the continent in the Central African Republic (CAR), Mali, South
Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo. In Libya and Egypt, some support is
also being provided. In addition, the French took the lead in organizing the
international community to restore stability during the recent crises in the
CAR, Mali and Libya. With a new EU parliament likely to focus on internal
issues, there are now legitimate concerns among African leaders that this
assistance could decrease.
African leaders will have to wait to see what the new
members of the European Parliament hold for the future of collaboration with
Africa. In the meantime, a number of lessons from regional integration in
Europe are evident and could help to bolster efforts at regional integration
throughout Africa.
[1] The
other big surprise of the election came from Italy—where the new Prime Minister
Matteo Renzi’s Democratic party won a historic 40 percent of the vote. The
largest country in the union, Germany, had no big surprises as the main
conservative parties, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian
Social Union (CSU), together won 35 percent of the vote.
Vera Songwe is a nonresident senior fellow with the Africa Growth
Initiative and lead economist at the World Bank. Most recently, she
was the adviser to managing director Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, who oversaw
the World Bank Operations in the Africa, Europe and Central Asia and South Asia
regions, as well as human resources.
The views expressed here are those of the author and may not represent those
of ECDPM
Photo courtesy of The Council of the European Union
Photo courtesy of The Council of the European Union
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